Thursday, July 12, 2018

Cooler Waters in Tropical Atlantic are Detrimental Hurricanes



The cooler-than-average waters in the tropical Atlantic are being driven by northerly winds around the eastern periphery of a strong area of high pressure over the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean. On the western periphery of this high, southerly winds have led to above-average water temperatures off the U.S. East Coast.
List of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names for the 2018 hurricane season.
Another factor that can be detrimental to hurricane formation is the development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean during hurricane season. This typically causes stronger-than-average winds aloft over parts of the Atlantic basin, shredding potential tropical cyclones apart.
The CSU team does not expect a significant El Niño event to develop during the peak of the 2018 hurricane season (August-October). CSU did caution that a large amount of uncertainty still remains surrounding this potential factor.
Additional adjustments to the CSU forecast are possible in future updates.

"If the tropical Atlantic were to remain anomalously cool or if El Niño were to develop unexpectedly, the seasonal forecast would be lowered with our July or August updates. However, if the tropical Atlantic were to anomalously warm and the tropical Pacific were to remain neutral, the seasonal forecast could be increased in future updates," CSU concluded.

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